Will Twitter Following Predict The Democratic Primary Outcome?

Back in March 2019, I asked the question of whether Twitter following would predict the Democratic primary outcome.  I posted the standings in Twitter following among the candidates as of March 16, 2019 (see below).   I’m now updating the standings to show who is leading in Twitter following as of today, 2/1/2020, only two days from the first primary election in Iowa.

Twitter following standings as of 2/1/2020:

1. Bernie Sanders: 10. 4 Million (+1.3 million)
2.  Joe Biden:  4.1 Million (+.8 million)
3. Elizabeth Warren:  3.6 Million (+1.4 million)
4. Mike Bloomberg:  2.4 Million
5.  Pete Buttigieg: 1.6 Million  (+1.3 million)
6. Andrew Yang:  1.2 Million
7. Amy Klobuchar:  880.8K (+330K)
8. Tulsi Gabbard:  775.9K (+470.1K)
9. Tom Steyer:  281.5K

As of today, if Twitter following were a predictor of primary outcomes then Bernie Sanders would be the winner, distantly followed by Biden and Warren.  Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg have had the most sizeable gains in following since March of last year.  Note also that several people have dropped out of the race since March of last year, including a couple of people who were near the top of the leader board back then, Booker and Harris.  Some people have entered the race since March of last year and don’t have numbers for comparison, including Bloomberg and Yang.

If Twitter following were a predictor of who will win the Democratic primaries then here is how the field stood as of 3/16/2019:

1. Bernie Sanders:  9.1 Million  (@BernieSanders)
2. Cory Booker:  4.2 Million (@CoryBooker)
3. Joe Biden: 3.3 Million
4. Kamala Harris:  2.4 Million (@KamalaHarris)
5. Elizabeth Warren: 2.2 Million  (@ewarren)
6. Beto O’Rourke: 1.3 Million (@BetoORourke)
7. Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.3 Million (@SenGillibrand)
8. Amy Klobuchar:  652.6K (@amyklobuchar)
9. Tulsi Gabbard: 305.8K (@TulsiGabbard)
10. Pete Buttigieg:  287.7K (@PeteButtigieg)
11. Julian Castro:  188.3K (@JulianCastro)
12. Steve Bullock:  166.5K (@GovernorBullock)
13. John Hickenlooper:  137K (@Hickenlooper)
14. Tim Ryan: 69.3K (@RepTimRyan)
15. Terry McAuliffe:  65.7K (@TerryMcAuliffe)
16. Jay Inslee:  40K (@JayInslee)
17. John Delaney: 16.4K (@JohnDelaney)

Will Twitter Following Predict The Democratic Primary Outcome?

 

If Twitter following were a predictor of who will win the Democratic primaries then here is how the field stands as of today, 3/16/2019:

1. Bernie Sanders:  9.1 Million  (@BernieSanders)
2. Cory Booker:  4.2 Million (@CoryBooker)
3. Kamala Harris:  2.4 Million (@KamalaHarris)
4. Elizabeth Warren: 2.2 Million  (@ewarren)
5. Beto O’Rourke: 1.3 Million (@BetoORourke)
6. Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.3 Million (@SenGillibrand)
7. Amy Klobuchar:  652.6K (@amyklobuchar)
8. Tulsi Gabbard: 305.8K (@TulsiGabbard)
9. Pete Buttigieg:  287.7K (@PeteButtigieg)
10. Julian Castro:  188.3K (@JulianCastro)
11. Steve Bullock:  166.5K (@GovernorBullock)
12. John Hickenlooper:  137K (@Hickenlooper)
13. Tim Ryan: 69.3K (@RepTimRyan)
14. Terry McAuliffe:  65.7K (@TerryMcAuliffe)
15. Jay Inslee:  40K (@JayInslee)
16. John Delaney: 16.4K (@JohnDelaney)

Now, the race has only just begun and, in fact, some very significant players have yet to officially enter, including Joe Biden and Stacey Abrams.  Joe Biden would be in third right now with 3.3 million followers and Stacey Abrams would be in 8th with 413.8k followers.  The following will inevitably grow as we get closer to the primaries and the electorate has the opportunity to learn more about each candidate.  It will be interesting to compare the numbers as they exist today to that of the day of the first primary election in Iowa on February 3, 2020.  I will update the numbers then and perhaps a few times in between.